Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 14.168437 16.175199 18.326612 20.800168 23.560902 26.542627 30.001909
2025-09-14 11.432098 14.218532 17.427789 21.378688 26.091687 31.512665 38.197569
2025-09-21 9.688027 12.745610 16.434982 21.179880 27.082013 34.140756 43.175965
2025-09-28 8.014038 11.115028 15.022887 20.255442 27.017183 35.393169 46.477003
2025-10-05 7.327076 10.614530 14.907415 20.846359 28.759362 38.838984 52.531365
2025-10-12 6.699816 10.106832 14.704570 21.258433 30.236732 41.964575 58.273714
2025-10-19 5.991969 9.400704 14.148854 21.113396 30.908828 44.010346 62.633261
2025-10-26 5.369720 8.746871 13.595089 20.901008 31.433256 45.833840 66.722268
2025-11-02 4.901194 8.269504 13.242860 20.926802 32.257794 48.064760 71.418520
2025-11-09 4.530923 7.903223 13.015847 21.101297 33.277595 50.581326 76.581320
2025-11-16 4.143966 7.471268 12.649378 21.028255 33.908153 52.544056 81.006050
2025-11-23 3.776152 7.034006 12.236017 20.843959 34.342059 54.214317 85.043440
2025-11-30 3.499437 6.730237 12.019864 20.964393 35.261632 56.663025 90.363528
2025-12-07 3.342316 6.618246 12.105143 21.566411 36.952019 60.326965 97.627149
2025-12-14 3.051346 6.239602 11.714703 21.359257 37.338538 62.007872 101.939998
2025-12-21 2.667699 5.653608 10.924773 20.430267 36.503483 61.753767 103.262604
2025-12-28 2.567305 5.588717 11.033658 21.024799 38.175342 65.464985 110.836381
2026-01-04 2.446813 5.473233 11.041923 21.440251 39.560354 68.762502 117.861579
2026-01-11 2.256127 5.200512 10.743680 21.294025 39.982519 70.519480 122.488987
2026-01-18 2.073679 4.926340 10.421157 21.080084 40.269249 72.053789 126.794030
2026-01-25 1.937235 4.734349 10.238616 21.106058 40.965884 74.276044 132.273804
2026-02-01 1.829353 4.592744 10.141922 21.281864 41.927806 76.964406 138.592211
2026-02-08 1.701882 4.395691 9.921306 21.208274 42.434409 78.894950 143.704611